Monsoon to be normal in India in 2021: IMD

The Indian Meteorological Department - IMD recently announced that the southwest monsoon is expected to be normal at 98% of the long-term average. Because La Nina or El Nino affecting the monsoon rainfall in India is likely to be absent. In addition, the Indian Ocean Dipole, which has a direct impact on the Indian monsoon, is also expected to remain neutral this year.

Long Period Average

• The average monsoon period is 88 cm. Rainfall between 96% and 104% LPA is considered normal rainfall.
  
  
• In 2020, rainfall in India was 109% of the long-term average.
  
  
• In 2019, rainfall in India was 110% of the long-term average.

Indian Ocean Dipole

Indian Ocean Dipole There are irregular fluctuations in sea surface temperature in the Indian Ocean. During the Indian Ocean Dipole, the western Indian Ocean becomes alternately more cold and warm than the eastern part of the ocean.

How is the monsoon predicted in India?

• IMD uses three methods to predict the monsoon in India. They are statistical method, dynamic method and dynamical cum statistical method.
  
  
• Under the statistical method, factors affecting the monsoon are identified. They relate to the historical event of the monsoon in the past.
  
  
• Under the kinetic method, atmospheric and oceanic conditions are simulated.
  
  
• Dynamic correlation statistical method is empirical in nature. Empirical methods are used in countries like USA, UK, South Africa, Australia, Brazil.

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